2014 · WC · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

30·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.118
  • 44.2%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.77CPOE+5.59
  • 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:001139Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:3334Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:05833Field goal0–3
BALQ1 1:29965Touchdown7–3
PITQ2 12:281168Field goal7–6
BALQ2 5:40955Field goal10–6
PITQ2 2:41853Field goal10–9
BALQ2 0:3700End of half10–9
BALQ3 15:00925Field goal13–9
PITQ3 10:06512Punt13–9
BALQ3 7:38669Touchdown20–9
PITQ3 4:13814Punt20–9
BALQ4 14:53732Turnover20–9
PITQ4 11:51250Touchdown20–15
BALQ4 11:01629Field goal23–15
PITQ4 8:4736Turnover29–15
BALQ4 8:03121Touchdown30–15
PITQ4 7:561388Turnover30–15
BALQ4 2:5732Safety30–17
PITQ4 1:56524Turnover30–17
BALQ4 0:5500End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/2925920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett16402.50
Joe Flacco881.00
Bernard Pierce155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith571010
Owen Daniels45700
Torrey Smith26281
Crockett Gillmore11211
Marlon Brown1290
Justin Forsett1270
Kamar Aiken1140
Jacoby Jones1130

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger31/4533412
Bruce Gradkowski2/32200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Harris9252.80
Ben Tate5193.80
Ben Roethlisberger2168.00
Martavis Bryant166.00
Will Johnson133.00
Dri Archer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown9141170
Heath Miller69760
Markus Wheaton56660
Martavis Bryant59611
Dri Archer34150
Ben Tate2390
Darrius Heyward-Bey1160
Josh Harris2260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.11