Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.118
- 44.2%Success rate48.4%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.77CPOE+5.59
- 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.21Points / drive2.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/29 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 31/45 | 334 | 1 | 2 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2/3 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Harris | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 14 | 117 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Dri Archer | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Harris | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11