Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+7.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.025
- 41.1%Success rate41.9%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.75CPOE-1.27
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.32Points / drive1.90
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 13/24 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 5/8 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 3 | 89 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/24 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 91 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Chris Owusu | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.04