2015 · Week 1

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

10·31

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+7.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.025
  • 41.1%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.75CPOE-1.27
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.90
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00634Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:361890Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 1:37515Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ2 14:15670Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 11:01443Turnover7–0
NYJQ2 9:53219Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 9:4148Punt7–7
NYJQ2 7:1933Punt7–7
CLEQ2 5:54733Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 2:46972Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 0:2618End of half10–14
CLEQ3 15:00833Turnover10–14
NYJQ3 10:42628Touchdown10–21
CLEQ3 7:5137Punt10–21
NYJQ3 6:301060Field goal10–24
CLEQ3 0:2979Turnover10–24
NYJQ4 12:49419Touchdown10–31
CLEQ4 10:38532Turnover10–31
NYJQ4 9:0830Punt10–31
CLEQ4 7:35831Turnover on downs10–31
NYJQ4 4:53741End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel13/2418211
Josh McCown5/84900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Johnny Manziel5357.00
Josh McCown3237.70
Duke Johnson7223.10
Isaiah Crowell12201.70
Shaun Draughn144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Benjamin33891
Gary Barnidge35380
Andrew Hawkins36240
Brian Hartline25200
Taylor Gabriel24200
Malcolm Johnson22140
Jim Dray13130
Isaiah Crowell22130
Rob Housler0100
Shaun Draughn0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2417921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory20914.52
Bilal Powell12625.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall69621
Chris Owusu46550
Eric Decker23371
Bilal Powell24160
Chris Ivory1190
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.04