2015 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.020
  • 42.3%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.77CPOE+1.51
  • 33.6%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.74
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001075Field goal0–3
GBQ1 9:2837Punt0–3
CHIQ1 7:5551Punt0–3
GBQ1 5:251077Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 0:431666Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 7:491181Field goal10–10
CHIQ2 2:321047Field goal10–13
GBQ2 0:0800End of half10–13
GBQ3 15:00659Touchdown17–13
CHIQ3 11:561261Field goal17–16
GBQ3 4:571883Touchdown24–16
CHIQ4 10:26978Turnover on downs24–16
GBQ4 7:3837Punt24–16
CHIQ4 6:05417Turnover24–16
GBQ4 3:4169Touchdown31–16
CHIQ4 1:55657Touchdown31–23
GBQ4 0:3400End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2318930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy19854.51
Aaron Rodgers8354.40
Richard Rodgers11111.00
James Starks221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams48590
James Jones44512
Randall Cobb55381
Richard Rodgers33270
Eddie Lacy23140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3622511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte241415.91
Jay Cutler4317.80
Jacquizz Rodgers4164.00
Jeremy Langford111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery511780
Marquess Wilson22590
Martellus Bennett57551
Matt Forte58250
Eddie Royal1580
Zach Miller0100
Jacquizz Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.27