Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.020
- 42.3%Success rate42.8%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.77CPOE+1.51
- 33.6%Third-down rate42.3%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.72Points / drive1.74
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/23 | 189 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 4 | 51 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/36 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 141 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 | 2 | 59 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27