Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.055
- 44.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.03CPOE-4.17
- 36.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.92Points / drive1.50
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 22/33 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 6 | 106 | 2 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 18/34 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Mallett | 8/13 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 13 | 98 | 2 |
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28