2015 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

27·20

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTexans
  • +0.033EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.0%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.172
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.03CPOE-4.17
  • 36.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.50
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–HOU
KCQ1 15:00832Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:1410Turnover0–0
KCQ1 11:04213Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 10:22633Punt7–0
KCQ1 8:40883Touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 4:28880Touchdown14–6
KCQ1 0:46966Field goal17–6
HOUQ2 10:2633Punt17–6
KCQ2 8:52422Field goal20–6
HOUQ2 6:203-13Turnover26–6
KCQ2 5:0117Touchdown27–6
HOUQ2 4:5531Punt27–6
KCQ2 3:583-1Punt27–6
HOUQ2 2:261064Field goal27–9
KCQ2 0:0900End of half27–9
HOUQ3 15:00423Punt27–9
KCQ3 13:3639Punt27–9
HOUQ3 11:4632Punt27–9
KCQ3 10:47710Punt27–9
HOUQ3 8:14769Turnover on downs27–9
KCQ3 6:03525Punt27–9
HOUQ3 3:05523Punt27–9
KCQ4 14:45834Punt27–9
HOUQ4 9:52514Punt27–9
KCQ4 8:1339Missed field goal27–9
HOUQ4 6:10744Touchdown27–17
KCQ4 4:07624Punt27–17
HOUQ4 2:47953Field goal27–20
KCQ4 1:2300End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith22/3324330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles16573.60
Knile Davis6162.70
Alex Smith9151.70
De'Anthony Thomas199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce661062
Jeremy Maclin59520
Jamaal Charles58461
Albert Wilson33250
Knile Davis11120
De'Anthony Thomas1220
James O'Shaughnessy0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer18/3423611
Ryan Mallett8/139810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue9424.70
Jonathan Grimes6284.70
Chris Polk5224.40
Ryan Mallett166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington6111050
DeAndre Hopkins913982
Cecil Shorts48570
Keith Mumphery23230
Ryan Griffin14180
C.J. Fiedorowicz11150
Chris Polk1190
Alfred Blue1270
Jonathan Grimes1220
Garrett Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28