Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
52
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.073
- 44.0%Success rate43.9%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.12CPOE-0.85
- 37.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 2.02Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/36 | 189 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 36/45 | 356 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dunbar | 8 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 9 | 60 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07