2015 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

26·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

52

Model margin

+3.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.0%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.12CPOE-0.85
  • 37.1%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:001779Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 4:33733Field goal3–3
DALQ1 1:58730Punt3–3
NYGQ2 13:10617Punt3–3
DALQ2 10:53849Field goal3–6
NYGQ2 5:31517Punt3–6
DALQ2 2:54544Opp touchdown10–6
DALQ2 0:5610Turnover10–6
NYGQ2 0:46519Field goal13–6
DALQ2 0:1400End of half13–6
NYGQ3 15:001168Field goal16–6
DALQ3 9:481064Touchdown16–13
NYGQ3 4:0139Punt16–13
DALQ3 2:26619Punt16–13
NYGQ4 13:59939Punt16–13
DALQ4 9:4634Turnover22–13
NYGQ4 8:0911Touchdown23–13
DALQ4 8:01676Touchdown23–20
NYGQ4 5:081264Field goal26–20
DALQ4 1:34672Touchdown26–27
NYGQ4 0:07218End of half26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3618900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings13524.01
Shane Vereen3144.70
Andre Williams6142.30
Dwayne Harris11111.00
Eli Manning188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shane Vereen45450
Odell Beckham Jr.58440
Daniel Fells34330
Preston Parker26230
Rueben Randle35230
Larry Donnell34210
Rashad Jennings0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo36/4535632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle16654.10
Darren McFadden6162.70
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Dunbar88700
Jason Witten89602
Terrance Williams58600
Cole Beasley46490
Dez Bryant57480
Joseph Randle33420
Darren McFadden11190
Gavin Escobar2281
Devin Street0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.07