Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.089
- 45.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- +4.85CPOE-0.32
- 39.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.08Points / drive2.25
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/38 | 351 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 11 | 133 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyler Murphy | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/32 | 288 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 11 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 8 | 94 | 3 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79