2015 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

21·28

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.089
  • 45.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +4.85CPOE-0.32
  • 39.0%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.25
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
PITQ1 15:00964Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 9:40638Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:41729Punt0–0
NEQ1 3:1414100Touchdown0–7
PITQ2 11:11652Missed field goal0–7
NEQ2 8:38964Touchdown0–14
PITQ2 4:011167Field goal3–14
NEQ2 0:0300End of half3–14
NEQ3 15:001052Touchdown3–21
PITQ3 10:37780Touchdown11–21
NEQ3 6:43413Punt11–21
PITQ3 4:151367Field goal14–21
NEQ4 11:39777Touchdown14–28
PITQ4 9:2037Punt14–28
NEQ4 8:293-2Punt14–28
PITQ4 7:29218Turnover14–28
NEQ4 7:00721Punt14–28
PITQ4 2:591380Touchdown21–28
NEQ4 0:0200End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/3835111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams211276.00
Will Johnson471.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown9111331
Heath Miller811840
Darrius Heyward-Bey47580
Markus Wheaton37550
Tyler Murphy11160
DeAngelo Williams1150

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3228840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis15694.60
Julian Edelman199.00
Tom Brady310.30
Brandon Bolden510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman1112970
Rob Gronkowski58943
Dion Lewis45510
Danny Amendola23240
Brandon Bolden12120
Aaron Dobson1190
Scott Chandler1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79