2015 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

31·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

42

Model margin

+4.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.070EPA / play+0.033
  • 40.5%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.92CPOE+0.03
  • 35.2%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.92
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:19955Turnover0–0
DENQ1 8:123-4Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:3159Punt0–0
DENQ1 3:2179Punt0–0
DENQ2 14:4849Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ2 12:34648Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 9:11625Opp touchdown0–14
DENQ2 6:271080Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 2:3120Turnover7–14
DENQ2 2:21415Touchdown14–14
KCQ2 0:4822End of half14–14
KCQ3 15:00963Field goal14–17
DENQ3 9:47835Punt14–17
KCQ3 6:16311Punt14–17
DENQ3 5:00422Field goal17–17
KCQ3 3:1836Punt17–17
DENQ3 1:39611Punt17–17
KCQ4 14:32610Punt17–17
DENQ4 11:363-5Punt17–17
KCQ4 9:53641Turnover17–17
DENQ4 6:2735Punt17–17
KCQ4 4:42661Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 2:271175Touchdown24–24
KCQ4 0:3611Opp touchdown31–24
KCQ4 0:2727End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/4525631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman9343.80
C.J. Anderson12272.30
Emmanuel Sanders100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas8141160
Emmanuel Sanders814872
Owen Daniels35190
Jordan Norwood35140
Virgil Green23121
Andre Caldwell1260
C.J. Anderson1120
Ronnie Hillman0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/2519102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles211256.01
Alex Smith3155.00
Knile Davis393.01
Jeremy Maclin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce45580
Jeremy Maclin47570
James O'Shaughnessy22540
De'Anthony Thomas24200
Jamaal Charles4520
Knile Davis0100
Albert Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.49