Closing spread
KC -3
Total
42
Model margin
+4.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.033
- 40.5%Success rate44.0%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.92CPOE+0.03
- 35.2%Third-down rate36.6%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.92
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/45 | 256 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 14 | 116 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 8 | 14 | 87 | 2 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/25 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49