Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.022
- 44.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.013
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.09CPOE+2.87
- 38.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.90Points / drive1.94
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/53 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 17 | 83 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/18 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 29 | 134 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.83