2015 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

16·26

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.013
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.09CPOE+2.87
  • 38.4%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.94
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 10:25626Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:2539Punt0–7
DETQ1 5:2568Punt0–7
MINQ1 2:24750Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 14:261377Field goal3–14
MINQ2 7:12965Field goal3–17
DETQ2 2:32968Touchdown10–17
MINQ2 0:3412End of half10–17
DETQ3 15:00314Turnover10–17
MINQ3 13:371-5Turnover10–17
DETQ3 13:2931Punt10–17
MINQ3 11:25734Touchdown10–23
DETQ3 8:54332Turnover10–23
MINQ3 7:31521Punt10–23
DETQ3 4:451040Punt10–23
MINQ3 0:47624Punt10–23
DETQ4 12:2720Turnover10–23
MINQ4 12:061049Field goal10–26
DETQ4 6:202057Touchdown16–26
MINQ4 1:48328End of half16–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/5328621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matthew Stafford4205.00
Ameer Abdullah691.50
Theo Riddick155.00
Joique Bell420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson1017831
Golden Tate610800
Eric Ebron510431
Theo Riddick56410
Joique Bell22160
Lance Moore36140
Ameer Abdullah1190

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater14/1815310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson291344.60
Jarius Wright12929.00
Teddy Bridgewater6213.51
Matt Asiata284.00
Jerick McKinnon362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adrian Peterson22580
Mike Wallace33380
Kyle Rudolph57301
Jarius Wright12170
Charles D. Johnson33100
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.83