Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.081
- 45.3%Success rate42.4%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +4.53CPOE-0.66
- 39.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 2.11Points / drive1.48
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/32 | 383 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 10 | 13 | 227 | 2 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/49 | 362 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 13 | 17 | 186 | 2 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.64