2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

28·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 70°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.081
  • 45.3%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +4.53CPOE-0.66
  • 39.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.48
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:451459Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 7:201158Missed field goal7–0
CINQ1 1:4165Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:07516Turnover7–0
CINQ2 12:37416Touchdown14–0
BALQ2 12:181027Punt14–0
CINQ2 7:351193Turnover on downs14–0
BALQ2 1:51522Punt14–0
CINQ2 0:33314End of half14–0
CINQ3 15:00956Turnover14–0
BALQ3 10:43890Touchdown14–7
CINQ3 6:2338Punt14–7
BALQ3 4:251472Field goal14–10
CINQ4 13:27718Punt14–10
BALQ4 9:573-2Punt14–10
CINQ4 9:04519Opp touchdown14–17
CINQ4 6:49180Touchdown21–17
BALQ4 6:37989Touchdown21–24
CINQ4 3:56680Touchdown28–24
BALQ4 2:1057Turnover on downs28–24
CINQ4 1:35212End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3238331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13493.80
Jeremy Hill12211.80
Andy Dalton5102.01
Mohamed Sanu166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green10132272
Marvin Jones58941
Giovani Bernard34340
Mohamed Sanu24280
Tyler Eifert0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco32/4936221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10131.30
Javorius Allen3124.00
Michael Campanaro188.00
Lorenzo Taliaferro300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith13171862
Maxx Williams37440
Crockett Gillmore33400
Marlon Brown25290
Nick Boyle22190
Justin Forsett47160
Michael Campanaro22110
Lorenzo Taliaferro1160
Kamar Aiken0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.64