2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

35·33

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.103
  • 40.1%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.200
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.10CPOE+0.30
  • 40.5%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.32
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:38515Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:4838Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:25973Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 5:42536Punt7–0
INDQ1 2:2739Punt7–0
TENQ1 0:47731Opp touchdown14–0
TENQ2 12:59970Field goal14–3
INDQ2 8:2936Punt14–3
TENQ2 6:241478Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 0:19352End of half14–10
INDQ3 15:003-1Punt14–10
TENQ3 13:33886Touchdown14–17
INDQ3 9:5110Turnover14–23
TENQ3 9:4113Touchdown14–24
INDQ3 9:36844Turnover14–24
TENQ3 6:45710Field goal14–27
INDQ3 3:0436Punt14–27
TENQ3 2:10742Punt14–27
INDQ4 12:2013107Touchdown21–27
TENQ4 6:492-3Turnover27–27
INDQ4 5:59111Touchdown28–27
TENQ4 5:5330Punt28–27
INDQ4 5:29559Touchdown35–27
TENQ4 2:511164Touchdown35–33
INDQ4 0:4700End of half35–33

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck18/3026022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14866.12
Andrew Luck6213.50
Josh Robinson284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton47940
Coby Fleener46510
Phillip Dorsett23431
Jack Doyle33320
Donte Moncrief47321
Frank Gore1280
Andre Johnson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota27/4436722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews12494.11
Kendall Wright11313.00
Bishop Sankey5102.00
Jalston Fowler492.31
Dexter McCluster571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright712951
Delanie Walker710680
Dexter McCluster12350
Bishop Sankey22310
Craig Stevens22290
Justin Hunter12290
Anthony Fasano12260
Dorial Green-Beckham23221
Harry Douglas36200
Antonio Andrews12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.96