Closing spread
IND -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.103
- 40.1%Success rate41.1%
- -0.023EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.200
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.10CPOE+0.30
- 40.5%Third-down rate32.1%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.47Points / drive1.32
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/30 | 260 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 27/44 | 367 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.96