2015 · Week 3 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.025
- 42.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.119
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.62CPOE-1.12
- 43.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.81Points / drive2.02
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/49 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 12 | 64 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/32 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 7 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06