2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

21·32

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.025
  • 42.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.119
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.62CPOE-1.12
  • 43.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.02
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:0048Safety0–2
NYGQ1 12:47618Punt0–2
WASQ1 9:0323Turnover0–2
NYGQ1 8:30414Touchdown0–9
WASQ1 6:3439Punt0–9
NYGQ1 4:24857Field goal0–12
WASQ1 0:39954Field goal3–12
NYGQ2 11:31847Field goal3–15
WASQ2 7:321271Field goal6–15
NYGQ2 1:43844Punt6–15
WASQ2 0:0612End of half6–15
NYGQ3 15:001450Field goal6–18
WASQ3 7:29742Turnover6–18
NYGQ3 3:451083Touchdown6–25
WASQ4 13:391476Turnover6–25
NYGQ4 9:3239Punt6–25
WASQ4 7:241469Touchdown14–25
NYGQ4 3:40341Touchdown20–32
WASQ4 3:2100Touchdown21–32
NYGQ4 3:0830Punt21–32
WASQ4 1:43959End of half21–32

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4931612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones11383.50
Chris Thompson22914.50
Alfred Morris6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed69960
Pierre Garcon512640
Chris Thompson811571
Jamison Crowder66450
Rashad Ross22270
Andre Roberts13180
Ryan Grant2590
Derek Carrier0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/3227920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings11322.90
Andre Williams14292.11
Shane Vereen6233.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle771161
Odell Beckham Jr.79791
Larry Donnell36320
Daniel Fells33270
Rashad Jennings33250
Shane Vereen0300
Dwayne Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.06