Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.077
- 42.4%Success rate45.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.034
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.66CPOE+4.85
- 37.0%Third-down rate39.0%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.48Points / drive2.08
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/33 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 27 | 150 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 19/26 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 22 | 129 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17