2015 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Michael Vick

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

44

Model margin

+1.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.077
  • 42.4%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.034
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.66CPOE+4.85
  • 37.0%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.08
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:353-5Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:40752Field goal0–3
BALQ1 7:411380Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 0:2531Punt7–3
BALQ2 13:22830Turnover7–3
PITQ2 8:243-5Punt7–3
BALQ2 6:4936Punt7–3
PITQ2 4:46862Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 1:3730Punt7–10
PITQ2 0:39427Field goal7–13
BALQ3 15:0010Turnover7–13
PITQ3 14:49631Touchdown7–20
BALQ3 10:41680Touchdown14–20
PITQ3 7:273-13Punt14–20
BALQ3 5:4645Turnover on downs14–20
PITQ3 4:253-4Punt14–20
BALQ3 2:121245Field goal17–20
PITQ4 10:14417Punt17–20
BALQ4 7:31745Turnover on downs17–20
PITQ4 4:09426Missed field goal17–20
BALQ4 2:244-10Turnover on downs17–20
PITQ4 2:0436Missed field goal17–20
BALQ4 1:01545Field goal20–20
PITQ4 0:0300End of half20–20
PITOT630Turnover on downs20–20
BALOT33Punt20–20
PITOT526Turnover on downs20–20
BALOT732Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3318911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett271505.60
Javorius Allen5193.80
Lorenzo Taliaferro3134.30
Michael Campanaro199.01
Joe Flacco300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken57771
Steve Smith47240
Maxx Williams24170
Darren Waller12170
Michael Campanaro22160
Nick Boyle34120
Lorenzo Taliaferro11110
Marlon Brown2490
Justin Forsett0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick19/2612410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell221295.91
Mike Vick9333.70
DeAngelo Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown59420
Darrius Heyward-Bey45311
Le'Veon Bell77210
Markus Wheaton11180
Sammie Coates12110
Heath Miller1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.17