2015 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

13·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

43

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.083
  • 41.8%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.206
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -3.08CPOE-4.10
  • 33.9%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.47
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:12622Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:251260Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 4:59578Field goal3–3
INDQ1 2:49519Punt3–3
JAXQ1 0:1431Punt3–3
INDQ2 13:451-4Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 13:37444Touchdown10–3
INDQ2 11:371638Touchdown10–10
JAXQ2 6:041365Field goal13–10
INDQ2 0:0400End of half13–10
JAXQ3 15:00949Punt13–10
INDQ3 9:201146Punt13–10
JAXQ3 3:56516Punt13–10
INDQ3 1:33740Field goal13–13
JAXQ4 12:2748Punt13–13
INDQ4 11:09853Turnover13–13
JAXQ4 8:19837Punt13–13
INDQ4 5:1639Punt13–13
JAXQ4 3:5568Punt13–13
INDQ4 1:4831Punt13–13
JAXQ4 0:45538Missed field goal13–13
INDQ4 0:0100End of half13–13
JAXOT534Punt13–13
INDOT37Punt13–13
JAXOT831Missed field goal13–13
INDOT455Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles28/5029810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon221054.80
Blake Bortles4317.80
Tony Washington188.00
Toby Gerhart1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns11151161
Allen Robinson412800
Marcedes Lewis58400
Clay Harbor46310
Bryan Walters23270
T.J. Yeldon2340

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck30/4728210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17533.10
Phillip Dorsett144.00
Josh Robinson320.70
Matt Hasselbeck310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener912831
Donte Moncrief69750
T.Y. Hilton713670
Frank Gore57340
Griff Whalen11160
Phillip Dorsett2370
Andre Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.97