Closing spread
IND -4
Total
43
Model margin
+3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.083
- 41.8%Success rate40.1%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.206
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.0%
- -3.08CPOE-4.10
- 33.9%Third-down rate40.5%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.47
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 28/50 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tony Washington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 11 | 15 | 116 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 30/47 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 9 | 12 | 83 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 13 | 67 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97