Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutCody LatimerWRGroin· DNP
- OutTy SambrailoTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableBennie FowlerWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableEvan MathisGHamstring· DNP
- ProbableDeMarcus WareLBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDemaryius ThomasWRNeck· Full
- ProbableJames CaseyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGKnee· Full
- ProbableOmar BoldenCBFoot· Full
- ProbableOwen DanielsTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbablePeyton ManningQBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableRyan HarrisTKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutDenico AutryDTConcussion· DNP
- OutJustin EllisDTAnkle· DNP
- OutT.J. CarrieCBChest· DNP
- OutTaiwan JonesRBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTaylor MaysSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBen HeeneyLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableBenson MayowaDEKnee· Full
- ProbableC.J. WilsonDECalf· Full
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableJustin TuckDEKnee· Full
- ProbableKeith McGillCBFoot· Full
- ProbableLatavius MurrayRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMichael CrabtreeWRAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:37 | 11 | 44 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:43 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:19 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 9:37 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:09 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:24 | 10 | 82 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q3 13:26 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q3 13:21 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LV | Q3 11:25 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 9:49 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| LV | Q3 6:29 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 9–7 |
| DEN | Q3 4:06 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| LV | Q3 2:48 | 5 | 26 | Missed field goal | 9–7 |
| DEN | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 9–7 |
| LV | Q4 10:58 | 9 | 43 | Opp touchdown | 16–7 |
| LV | Q4 6:53 | 13 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 16–7 |
| DEN | Q4 2:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LV | Q4 1:52 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q4 1:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/35 | 266 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.