2015 · Week 6 · Division

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

34·37

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.019
  • 42.8%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.51CPOE-0.09
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.90
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:29971Field goal3–7
DETQ1 4:4832Punt3–7
CHIQ1 2:391162Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 12:48766Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 9:171067Field goal13–14
DETQ2 4:501285Touchdown13–21
CHIQ2 0:5327End of half13–21
CHIQ3 15:00874Turnover13–21
DETQ3 11:0331Punt13–21
CHIQ3 9:32721Punt13–21
CHIQ3 6:4249Field goal16–21
DETQ3 5:12779Field goal16–24
CHIQ3 1:05414Punt16–24
CHIQ4 13:58431Touchdown23–24
DETQ4 12:273-2Turnover23–24
CHIQ4 10:59416Touchdown23–24
CHIQ4 9:2320Touchdown23–24
CHIQ4 8:3624Touchdown31–24
DETQ4 7:501360Field goal31–27
CHIQ4 2:4637Punt31–27
DETQ4 2:23670Touchdown31–34
CHIQ4 0:21349Field goal34–34
DETOT719Punt34–34
CHIOT39Punt34–34
DETOT49Punt34–34
CHIOT33Punt34–34
DETOT777Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/4135311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte24692.91
Jay Cutler2126.00
Jeremy Langford5102.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery8111471
Martellus Bennett611590
Marquess Wilson24540
Eddie Royal57490
Matt Forte35200
Jeremy Langford12170
Cameron Meredith1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4240541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah14483.40
Matthew Stafford6376.20
Theo Riddick7284.00
Zach Zenner3155.00
T.J. Jones1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson691661
Lance Moore561061
Theo Riddick36500
Golden Tate68401
Ameer Abdullah34210
Timothy Wright36171
Corey Fuller1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.15