Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.019
- 42.8%Success rate44.9%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.51CPOE-0.09
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.4%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.74Points / drive1.90
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/41 | 353 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 69 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 11 | 147 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/42 | 405 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 9 | 166 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 3 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Corey Fuller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.15