Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.051
- 40.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.254
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.17CPOE-3.08
- 39.6%Third-down rate33.9%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.50Points / drive1.59
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 24/36 | 293 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 15 | 148 | 2 |
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 30/53 | 331 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Walters | 8 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 7 | 13 | 78 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.17