2015 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

31·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.051
  • 40.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.254
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.17CPOE-3.08
  • 39.6%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.59
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:00531Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:24835Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:0018104Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 1:361566Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 9:41951Field goal10–7
JAXQ2 6:38827Punt10–7
HOUQ2 2:5748Punt10–7
JAXQ2 1:43950Turnover10–7
HOUQ2 0:0900End of half10–7
JAXQ3 15:0036Punt10–7
HOUQ3 13:11732Punt10–7
JAXQ3 9:18629Punt10–7
HOUQ3 6:151032Turnover on downs10–7
JAXQ3 1:37452Touchdown10–14
HOUQ3 0:05972Touchdown17–14
JAXQ4 11:2047Punt17–14
HOUQ4 9:25446Touchdown24–14
JAXQ4 8:0710Opp touchdown31–14
JAXQ4 7:551370Touchdown31–20
HOUQ4 4:3239Punt31–20
JAXQ4 3:301052Turnover31–20
HOUQ4 1:0000End of half31–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer24/3629330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster18532.90
Chris Polk8374.60
Brian Hoyer551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10151482
Cecil Shorts46630
Arian Foster56591
C.J. Fiedorowicz1280
Keith Mumphery2480
Jaelen Strong1150
Chris Polk1220

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles30/5333133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles4379.30
Toby Gerhart9262.90
Denard Robinson7192.70
Corey Grant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryan Walters812870
Allen Robinson612861
Julius Thomas713781
Allen Hurns27301
Toby Gerhart34230
Denard Robinson33190
Marcedes Lewis1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.17