Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.044
- 44.0%Success rate42.7%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.12CPOE-0.86
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.02Points / drive1.56
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/38 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Myles White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 24/38 | 280 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 112 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87