Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.025
- 43.9%Success rate44.0%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.85CPOE-1.12
- 34.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.31Points / drive2.02
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/27 | 227 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 29 | 152 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/24 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.64