Closing spread
DET -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.019
- 40.7%Success rate44.9%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.160
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.87CPOE-0.09
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.94Points / drive1.90
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 25/35 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 9 | 108 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/26 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| George Winn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06