2015 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

28·19

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.019
  • 40.7%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.160
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.87CPOE-0.09
  • 39.2%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.90
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:101558Field goal3–7
DETQ1 3:47585Touchdown3–14
MINQ1 1:24837Field goal6–14
DETQ2 11:1153Punt6–14
MINQ2 9:08422Turnover6–14
DETQ2 7:5658Field goal6–17
MINQ2 5:03779Touchdown12–17
DETQ2 1:493-3Punt12–17
MINQ2 1:13719Field goal15–17
MINQ3 15:00973Touchdown22–17
DETQ3 10:1938Punt22–17
MINQ3 8:14461Field goal25–17
DETQ3 6:073-9Punt25–17
MINQ3 4:07949Field goal28–17
DETQ4 14:1068Punt28–17
MINQ4 10:1334Punt28–17
DETQ4 8:413-11Punt28–17
MINQ4 7:13525Punt28–17
DETQ4 3:21988Turnover on downs28–17
MINQ4 1:564-1Safety28–19
DETQ4 0:59522Turnover on downs28–19
MINQ4 0:0600End of half28–19

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater25/3531620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19985.20
Jerick McKinnon9364.00
Stefon Diggs199.00
Teddy Bridgewater310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs691081
Mike Wallace45360
Jarius Wright36310
Adam Thielen12300
Charles D. Johnson12210
MyCole Pruitt11130
Adrian Peterson33120
Kyle Rudolph22101
Matt Asiata2250
Jerick McKinnon1110

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2625620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah8435.40
Joique Bell3217.00
Theo Riddick382.70
Matthew Stafford155.00
George Winn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron55891
Calvin Johnson57861
Theo Riddick34400
Joique Bell22140
Golden Tate26140
Timothy Wright11130
Lance Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.06