Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47
Model margin
+2.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.089
- 41.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.27CPOE-0.32
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.90Points / drive2.25
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/39 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Chris Owusu | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Zac Stacy | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/54 | 355 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 11 | 16 | 108 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22