2015 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

23·30

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

47

Model margin

+2.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.089
  • 41.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.27CPOE-0.32
  • 40.9%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.25
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:002-4Turnover0–0
NEQ1 14:103-1Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 12:481473Field goal3–3
NEQ1 7:29522Punt3–3
NYJQ1 5:051487Touchdown10–3
NEQ2 12:3037Punt10–3
NYJQ2 11:3438Punt10–3
NEQ2 9:501147Touchdown10–10
NYJQ2 6:2439Punt10–10
NEQ2 4:49741Field goal10–13
NYJQ2 2:003-5Punt10–13
NEQ2 0:1234End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:001165Field goal10–16
NYJQ3 11:101480Touchdown17–16
NEQ3 4:07420Punt17–16
NYJQ3 2:02948Field goal20–16
NEQ4 12:501080Touchdown20–23
NYJQ4 7:16416Punt20–23
NEQ4 5:321068Touchdown20–30
NYJQ4 1:13548Field goal23–30
NEQ4 0:1800End of half23–30
NYJQ4 0:14112End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3929520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory17412.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick5295.80
Zac Stacy7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker612940
Brandon Marshall47670
Jeremy Kerley34271
Chris Owusu24250
Jeff Cumberland13160
Chris Ivory22121
Zac Stacy11110
Devin Smith1270

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/5435520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tom Brady4153.81
James White242.00
LeGarrette Blount3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski11161081
Danny Amendola89861
Julian Edelman59540
Scott Chandler22340
James White35260
Brandon LaFell28250
Aaron Dobson23180
Michael Williams1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.22