Closing spread
NE -8
Total
51
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.089
- 40.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.20CPOE-0.32
- 31.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.42Points / drive2.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 28/44 | 300 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jonas Gray | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 7 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/38 | 356 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 9 | 81 | 2 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.71