2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

7·36

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

51

Model margin

+4.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.089
  • 40.5%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.20CPOE-0.32
  • 31.0%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.42Points / drive2.25
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
NEQ1 15:00995Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:12937Punt0–7
NEQ1 4:471056Punt0–7
MIAQ2 14:5330Safety0–9
NEQ2 14:0533Punt0–9
MIAQ2 12:4030Punt0–9
NEQ2 11:5245Punt0–9
MIAQ2 9:4742Punt0–9
NEQ2 8:04817Punt0–9
MIAQ2 5:2310Turnover0–9
NEQ2 5:1739Field goal0–12
MIAQ2 3:2542Punt0–12
NEQ2 1:41756Touchdown0–19
MIAQ2 0:24335Missed field goal0–19
MIAQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–19
NEQ3 11:251067Field goal7–22
MIAQ3 6:09529Punt7–22
NEQ3 2:25531Punt7–22
MIAQ3 0:56514Turnover7–22
NEQ4 14:15315Touchdown7–29
MIAQ4 13:293-15Punt7–29
NEQ4 11:28780Touchdown7–36
MIAQ4 7:171350Turnover on downs7–36
NEQ4 3:0643Punt7–36
MIAQ4 1:13436End of half7–36

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill28/4430002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller9151.71
Jonas Gray210.50
Ryan Tannehill2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry68710
Rishard Matthews712620
Kenny Stills37580
Jonas Gray45500
Jordan Cameron25340
Lamar Miller55190
Dion Sims1160

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3835640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount17724.20
Dion Lewis5193.80
James White331.00
Tom Brady111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski691131
Dion Lewis69931
Julian Edelman79812
Brandon LaFell47470
Danny Amendola11110
Scott Chandler1290
LeGarrette Blount1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.71