2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

6·20

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+11.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.1%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.172
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.30CPOE-4.17
  • 32.1%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.50
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:51944Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 9:0537Punt3–0
TENQ1 7:4138Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:39729Punt3–0
TENQ1 2:473-1Punt3–0
HOUQ1 0:32554Touchdown3–7
TENQ2 14:0400Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 13:5534Field goal3–10
TENQ2 11:3435Punt3–10
HOUQ2 9:45833Punt3–10
TENQ2 5:32516Punt3–10
HOUQ2 3:343-5Punt3–10
TENQ2 1:503-4Punt3–10
HOUQ2 0:421-7End of half3–10
TENQ3 15:00523Punt3–10
HOUQ3 11:30529Punt3–10
TENQ3 9:03544Field goal6–10
HOUQ3 5:54680Touchdown6–17
TENQ3 3:38722Turnover6–17
HOUQ4 14:5232Punt6–17
TENQ4 13:571-1Turnover6–17
HOUQ4 13:4934Field goal6–20
TENQ4 12:3344Punt6–20
HOUQ4 9:4857Punt6–20
TENQ4 7:18837Turnover on downs6–20
HOUQ4 4:37828Turnover on downs6–20
TENQ4 1:02314End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger22/3117101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews16644.00
Dexter McCluster3155.00
Kendall Wright177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker66620
Dexter McCluster46230
Kendall Wright47210
Antonio Andrews33180
Justin Hunter23170
Dorial Green-Beckham12120
Anthony Fasano1190
Craig Stevens1190
Rico Richardson0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer23/3523520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue14392.80
Chris Polk8182.30
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins811941
Nate Washington46741
Alfred Blue55330
C.J. Fiedorowicz22150
Jonathan Grimes23120
Chris Polk1240
Keith Mumphery1230
Garrett Graham0100
Jaelen Strong0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.6%6.4%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

77.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.99
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.18