Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+11.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.055
- 41.1%Success rate40.4%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.172
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.30CPOE-4.17
- 32.1%Third-down rate39.6%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.50
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 22/31 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rico Richardson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 23/35 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 94 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.99
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.18