Closing spread
CIN -13
Total
45.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.076
- 41.1%Success rate45.3%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.75CPOE+4.53
- 41.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 1.32Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 15/33 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/27 | 234 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 6 | 53 | 3 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.52