2015 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

10·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -13

Total

45.5

Model margin

+8.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.076
  • 41.1%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -0.75CPOE+4.53
  • 41.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:211063Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:081371Field goal3–7
CINQ1 0:0630Punt3–7
CLEQ2 12:5234Punt3–7
CINQ2 11:161562Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 4:341092Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 0:1900End of half10–14
CINQ3 15:00632Punt10–14
CLEQ3 11:15314Punt10–14
CINQ3 9:02839Field goal10–17
CLEQ3 4:0536Punt10–17
CINQ3 2:57891Touchdown10–24
CLEQ4 13:263-13Punt10–24
CINQ4 11:38858Touchdown10–31
CLEQ4 7:4330Punt10–31
CINQ4 7:10629Punt10–31
CLEQ4 3:27925Turnover on downs10–31
CINQ4 0:4400End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel15/3316810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell10383.80
Johnny Manziel4317.80
Duke Johnson300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson24381
Gary Barnidge27350
Dwayne Bowe35310
Isaiah Crowell34260
Travis Benjamin36220
Jim Dray11130
Taylor Gabriel1630

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2723430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13725.50
Jeremy Hill15523.50
Mohamed Sanu12525.01
Andy Dalton650.80
AJ McCarron2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones56780
A.J. Green46530
Tyler Eifert56533
Mohamed Sanu33250
Giovani Bernard11140
Rex Burkhead1170
Brandon Tate1140
Jeremy Hill1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.52