Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
44
Model margin
+3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.025
- 40.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.20CPOE+2.97
- 31.0%Third-down rate38.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 1.42Points / drive1.83
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/35 | 307 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jay Ajayi | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 7 | 97 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 10 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 11/12 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 112 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 9 | 110 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 8 | 8 | 168 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+3.19