2015 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·33

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 49°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

44

Model margin

+3.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.025
  • 40.5%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.039
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +1.20CPOE+2.97
  • 31.0%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.83
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00624Punt0–2
MIAQ1 11:5110Safety0–2
BUFQ1 11:48690Touchdown0–9
MIAQ1 8:50924Punt0–9
BUFQ1 4:54613Punt0–9
MIAQ1 0:53970Touchdown7–9
BUFQ2 11:28832Field goal7–12
MIAQ2 7:08551Punt7–12
BUFQ2 4:33484Touchdown7–19
MIAQ2 2:261279End of half7–19
MIAQ3 15:00973Touchdown14–19
BUFQ3 10:0531Punt14–19
MIAQ3 7:48712Turnover14–19
BUFQ3 4:33555Touchdown14–26
MIAQ3 2:21735Punt14–26
BUFQ4 14:511085Touchdown14–33
MIAQ4 8:351053Field goal17–33
BUFQ4 3:53440End of half17–33

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/3530700
Jarvis Landry1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller12443.72
Jay Ajayi5418.20
Jarvis Landry5204.00
Ryan Tannehill231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lamar Miller77970
Kenny Stills35740
Jarvis Landry1012670
Rishard Matthews44540
Ryan Tannehill1190
Dion Sims1390
Jordan Cameron1160
Greg Jennings0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor11/1218110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy161127.01
Karlos Williams911012.22
Tyrod Taylor10444.40
Robert Woods100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins881681
LeSean McCoy2270
Charles Clay1160
Robert Woods0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+3.19