Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.025
- 40.7%Success rate41.9%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.144
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.97CPOE-1.27
- 38.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.90
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/27 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/34 | 193 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 99 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 10 | 23 | 1 |
| Devin Smith | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59