2015 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

22·17

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.025
  • 40.7%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.144
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.97CPOE-1.27
  • 38.1%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.90
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:2947Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:1237Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:44417Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:58981Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 4:01719Punt0–3
NYJQ2 15:003-1Punt0–3
BUFQ2 13:30511Punt0–3
NYJQ2 10:24622Turnover0–3
BUFQ2 7:1535Field goal9–3
NYJQ2 5:4700Touchdown9–3
NYJQ2 5:3830Punt9–3
BUFQ2 4:501157Field goal12–3
NYJQ2 0:0300End of half12–3
BUFQ3 15:00780Touchdown19–3
NYJQ3 11:1513Turnover19–3
BUFQ3 11:06412Field goal22–3
NYJQ3 8:42880Touchdown22–10
BUFQ3 4:3938Punt22–10
NYJQ3 2:49643Turnover on downs22–10
BUFQ4 14:50313Punt22–10
NYJQ4 13:2138Punt22–10
BUFQ4 11:3539Punt22–10
NYJQ4 10:14969Touchdown22–17
BUFQ4 7:2348Turnover on downs22–17
NYJQ4 5:1246Turnover on downs22–17
BUFQ4 2:58735Punt22–17
NYJQ4 0:2410Turnover22–17
BUFQ4 0:1700End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2715810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy191125.90
Karlos Williams7243.40
Tyrod Taylor6122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay56520
LeSean McCoy55470
Karlos Williams11261
Robert Woods37190
Sammy Watkins37140

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/3419322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory18995.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick33010.00
Stevan Ridley3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker611851
Chris Ivory23360
Brandon Marshall310231
Devin Smith11220
Jeremy Kerley1370
Kenbrell Thompkins1420
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.59