2015 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

9·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Landry Jones

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.077
  • 41.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.75CPOE+4.85
  • 41.6%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.08
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:311-8Turnover0–0
PITQ1 12:2636Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:59667Field goal3–3
PITQ1 8:06869Field goal3–6
CLEQ1 4:451036Punt3–6
PITQ2 14:49680Turnover3–6
CLEQ2 12:20932Punt3–6
PITQ2 7:16952Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 3:27116Turnover3–14
PITQ2 3:20735Turnover on downs3–14
CLEQ2 1:3530Punt3–14
PITQ2 1:05252Touchdown3–21
CLEQ2 0:371-5End of half3–21
CLEQ3 15:00726Punt3–21
PITQ3 10:1173Field goal3–24
CLEQ3 8:331787Turnover3–24
PITQ4 14:0234Turnover3–24
CLEQ4 13:14211Touchdown9–24
PITQ4 12:28780Touchdown9–30
CLEQ4 9:071280Turnover on downs9–30
PITQ4 5:42865End of half9–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel33/4537211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Johnny Manziel3175.70
Duke Johnson4102.50
Isaiah Crowell6-5-0.80
Travis Benjamin1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Benjamin7111130
Brian Hartline69770
Andrew Hawkins78690
Gary Barnidge68651
Taylor Gabriel23260
Duke Johnson44180
Isaiah Crowell1240

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3337931
Landry Jones3/42300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17543.20
Jordan Todman284.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant6101781
Antonio Brown10141392
Heath Miller47400
Markus Wheaton22180
DeAngelo Williams12150
Jesse James1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.27
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.96