Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.077
- 41.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.75CPOE+4.85
- 41.6%Third-down rate39.0%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.32Points / drive2.08
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 33/45 | 372 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | -5 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 7 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 7 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/33 | 379 | 3 | 1 |
| Landry Jones | 3/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 6 | 10 | 178 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 14 | 139 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.27
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.96