Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
42
Model margin
-0.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.070
- 44.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.03CPOE-1.92
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.92Points / drive1.47
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/31 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 24 | 69 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 5 | 92 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/24 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 5/20 | 35 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.07