2015 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

29·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -4

Total

42

Model margin

-0.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.033EPA / play-0.070
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.03CPOE-1.92
  • 36.6%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.47
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:57531Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:2132Punt7–0
KCQ1 10:11548Field goal10–0
DENQ1 6:1936Punt10–0
KCQ1 4:5946Punt10–0
DENQ1 2:19625Turnover10–0
KCQ1 0:06719Field goal13–0
DENQ2 11:353-7Punt13–0
KCQ2 10:34624Punt13–0
DENQ2 6:02311Turnover13–0
KCQ2 4:5138Field goal16–0
DENQ2 3:3040Punt16–0
KCQ2 2:381246Field goal19–0
KCQ3 15:0030Punt19–0
DENQ3 13:5935Punt19–0
KCQ3 13:1664Field goal22–0
DENQ3 10:4544Turnover22–0
KCQ3 9:34610Punt22–0
DENQ3 6:3438Punt22–0
KCQ3 5:0638Punt22–0
DENQ3 4:181758Turnover22–0
KCQ4 12:03281Touchdown29–0
DENQ4 11:101280Touchdown29–6
KCQ4 5:2738Missed field goal29–6
DENQ4 3:08626Touchdown29–13
KCQ4 1:45212End of half29–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/3120410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West24692.91
Alex Smith6335.50
Spencer Ware242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charcandrick West35921
De'Anthony Thomas45370
Travis Kelce59360
Jeremy Maclin36170
Albert Wilson14160
Brian Parker1160
Jason Avant0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler14/2414611
Peyton Manning5/203504

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman11423.81
Brock Osweiler3186.00
C.J. Anderson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas710710
Cody Latimer35300
Vernon Davis24190
Bennie Fowler13170
Owen Daniels15140
Andre Caldwell25131
Ronnie Hillman2490
Virgil Green1180
Emmanuel Sanders0400
C.J. Anderson0100
Juwan Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.07