2015 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·13

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -1

Total

45

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.022
  • 42.3%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.77CPOE+2.87
  • 33.6%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.94
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00942Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:241351Field goal3–0
MINQ1 4:49464Touchdown3–6
GBQ1 3:0135Field goal6–6
MINQ1 1:3768Punt6–6
GBQ2 12:35545Field goal9–6
MINQ2 10:17627Punt9–6
GBQ2 6:1052Punt9–6
MINQ2 3:323-5Punt9–6
GBQ2 2:191225Touchdown16–6
MINQ2 0:0625End of half16–6
GBQ3 15:001166Field goal19–6
MINQ3 10:13622Punt19–6
GBQ3 6:0045Punt19–6
MINQ3 4:37463Touchdown19–13
GBQ3 2:37885Touchdown27–13
MINQ4 14:51544Turnover27–13
GBQ4 13:20520Punt27–13
MINQ4 10:1946Punt27–13
GBQ4 7:5836Punt27–13
MINQ4 6:17622Turnover on downs27–13
GBQ4 4:373-1Field goal30–13
MINQ4 4:14944Turnover on downs30–13
GBQ4 2:13213End of half30–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/3421220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy221004.50
James Starks8141.80
Aaron Rodgers362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones6111091
Davante Adams34360
James Starks11300
Randall Cobb29241
Richard Rodgers3570
Eddie Lacy1260
Jeff Janis0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater25/3729610
Shaun Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson13453.51
Teddy Bridgewater44310.80
Mike Wallace166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph691061
Stefon Diggs69660
Jarius Wright45500
Rhett Ellison23190
Adrian Peterson22160
Jerick McKinnon23150
Matt Asiata1190
MyCole Pruitt1180
Mike Wallace0200
Adam Thielen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35