Closing spread
GB -1
Total
45
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.022
- 42.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.77CPOE+2.87
- 33.6%Third-down rate39.2%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.72Points / drive1.94
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/34 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 6 | 11 | 109 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 9 | 24 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 25/37 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35