2015 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

17·13

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.002
  • 42.8%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.51CPOE-0.77
  • 42.3%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.72
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00637Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 12:4837Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:391027Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:3038Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:04644Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:2035Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:063-3Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:10524Punt0–7
GBQ2 14:4839Punt0–7
CHIQ2 12:5338Punt0–7
GBQ2 11:28215Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 10:44934Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 6:03738Field goal7–10
CHIQ2 1:58758Touchdown14–10
GBQ2 0:30436Field goal14–13
CHIQ3 15:00838Punt14–13
GBQ3 10:121237Punt14–13
CHIQ3 4:441565Field goal17–13
GBQ4 12:15813Punt17–13
CHIQ4 8:23625Punt17–13
GBQ4 4:09440Turnover17–13
CHIQ4 3:19419Punt17–13
GBQ4 2:451372Turnover on downs17–13
CHIQ4 0:2200End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/3120010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Langford12484.01
Matt Forte15442.90
Jay Cutler492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery711900
Marquess Wilson45440
Marc Mariani33350
Zach Miller27101
Matt Forte1190
Khari Lee1170
Jeremy Langford1350

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/4320211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy171056.20
James Starks7395.60
Aaron Rodgers4338.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb67740
James Starks45410
Eddie Lacy45341
Richard Rodgers47300
Davante Adams211140
Justin Perillo2290
James Jones0600

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.71