Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.002
- 42.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.51CPOE-0.77
- 42.3%Third-down rate33.6%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.74Points / drive1.72
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/31 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Khari Lee | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/43 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 105 | 6.2 | 0 |
| James Starks | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 11 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.71