2015 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.0%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.12CPOE+5.62
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.81
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:00933Turnover0–0
WASQ1 11:5137Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:3831Turnover0–0
WASQ1 9:0742Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 6:59530Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:241486Field goal0–3
NYGQ2 12:233-5Punt0–9
WASQ2 10:29163Touchdown0–10
NYGQ2 10:18526Punt0–10
WASQ2 7:5930Punt0–10
NYGQ2 7:02415Punt0–10
WASQ2 5:40980Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 1:45517Punt0–17
WASQ2 0:3900End of half0–17
WASQ3 15:00746Turnover on downs0–17
NYGQ3 11:24959Turnover0–17
WASQ3 7:15425Punt0–17
NYGQ3 5:0253Punt0–17
WASQ3 4:0336Punt0–17
NYGQ3 2:223-10Punt0–17
WASQ3 1:34835Field goal0–20
NYGQ4 11:36665Touchdown7–20
WASQ4 10:10520Punt7–20
NYGQ4 7:20977Touchdown14–20
WASQ4 4:57837Punt14–20
NYGQ4 0:19321End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/5132123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen2157.50
Rashad Jennings6142.30
Orleans Darkwa221.00
Dwayne Harris111.00
Andre Williams210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.9181421
Will Tye68740
Rueben Randle16361
Dwayne Harris25280
Shane Vereen45210
Rashad Jennings23140
Hakeem Nicks1240
Jerome Cunningham1420

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/2930210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris23783.40
Matt Jones8192.40
Chris Thompson273.50
Kirk Cousins410.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed89980
DeSean Jackson24661
Matt Jones11450
Pierre Garcon36350
Ryan Grant11190
Alfred Morris11120
Jamison Crowder24120
Chris Thompson1190
Derek Carrier1160
Andre Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.36