2015 · Week 12 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.022
- 44.0%Success rate42.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.12CPOE+5.62
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.9%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.02Points / drive1.81
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/51 | 321 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9 | 18 | 142 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/29 | 302 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 23 | 78 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.36