2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

37·3

Browns

Cleveland

QB Austin Davis

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

-5.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.074
  • 45.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.179
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.53CPOE-0.75
  • 39.6%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.32
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:28814Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:251084Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 3:45847Turnover on downs7–0
CINQ2 14:55354Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 13:40726Turnover on downs14–0
CINQ2 10:07524Field goal17–0
CLEQ2 6:24416Turnover17–0
CINQ2 4:4245Field goal20–0
CLEQ2 3:20950Field goal20–3
CLEQ3 15:00632Missed field goal20–3
CINQ3 11:12762Touchdown27–3
CLEQ3 7:42619Punt27–3
CINQ3 4:35762Touchdown34–3
CLEQ3 0:42831Turnover34–3
CINQ4 11:29831Field goal37–3
CLEQ4 5:45317Punt37–3
CINQ4 4:27729Turnover on downs37–3
CLEQ4 1:08421End of half37–3

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton14/1922020
AJ McCarron2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill22984.51
Giovani Bernard5265.20
Andy Dalton4112.81
Mohamed Sanu177.00
Rex Burkhead122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green561281
Marvin Jones55551
Tyler Kroft11170
Mario Alford11150
Giovani Bernard1190
Ryan Hewitt1170
Rex Burkhead1240
C.J. Uzomah1140
Brandon Tate0100
Mohamed Sanu0100
Jeremy Hill0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Austin Davis25/3823001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell11625.60
Austin Davis341.30
Duke Johnson520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline811830
Gary Barnidge58590
Darius Jennings57350
Duke Johnson44300
Marlon Moore11140
E.J. Bibbs1170
Isaiah Crowell1120
Travis Benjamin0200
Malcolm Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.30
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.43