Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
-5.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.074
- 45.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.179
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.53CPOE-0.75
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.6%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.32
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/19 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 22 | 98 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 128 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mario Alford | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Davis | 25/38 | 230 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Austin Davis | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 8 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| E.J. Bibbs | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.43