2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

17·3

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

45

Model margin

-0.2est.

SD perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SD
DENQ1 15:00876Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 11:15730Punt7–0
DENQ1 8:2349Punt7–0
LACQ1 6:18721Missed field goal7–0
DENQ1 3:0739Punt7–0
LACQ1 2:05415Opp touchdown14–0
LACQ1 0:0448Punt14–0
DENQ2 12:441440Field goal17–0
LACQ2 5:261052Field goal17–3
DENQ2 1:41635End of half17–3
LACQ3 15:00733Turnover17–3
DENQ3 12:1159Missed field goal17–3
LACQ3 9:20531Turnover17–3
DENQ3 7:39847Turnover17–3
LACQ3 4:09842Punt17–3
DENQ3 0:381150Punt17–3
LACQ4 9:0144Punt17–3
DENQ4 6:46615Punt17–3
LACQ4 4:07632Turnover on downs17–3
DENQ4 2:0634Punt17–3
LACQ4 1:0244Turnover on downs17–3
DENQ4 0:2500End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler16/2616611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman19562.90
C.J. Anderson7426.00
Juwan Thompson8273.40
Emmanuel Sanders155.00
Andre Caldwell133.00
Brock Osweiler310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas66611
Vernon Davis23250
Virgil Green11220
Emmanuel Sanders38190
Juwan Thompson11140
Owen Daniels23130
C.J. Anderson11120
Ronnie Hillman0100
Bennie Fowler0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.19

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.