Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.077
- 40.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- -4.10CPOE+4.85
- 40.5%Third-down rate39.0%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.47Points / drive2.08
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/26 | 169 | 1 | 2 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 4/8 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 3 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/39 | 364 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 26 | 134 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 11 | 118 | 2 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48