2015 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

10·45

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

50.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.077
  • 40.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.10CPOE+4.85
  • 40.5%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.08
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
PITQ1 15:0000Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:5631Turnover0–0
PITQ1 14:09421Turnover0–0
INDQ1 12:1838Field goal3–0
PITQ1 10:19969Field goal3–3
INDQ1 5:2745Turnover3–3
PITQ1 4:0435Field goal3–6
INDQ1 3:151041Punt3–6
PITQ2 12:2932Punt3–6
INDQ2 10:54451Touchdown10–6
PITQ2 8:261080Touchdown10–14
INDQ2 4:0439Punt10–14
PITQ2 1:48975Touchdown10–21
INDQ2 0:1000End of half10–21
INDQ3 15:0033Punt10–21
PITQ3 13:58375Touchdown10–28
INDQ3 12:35425Punt10–28
PITQ3 10:551157Missed field goal10–28
INDQ3 6:08654Turnover on downs10–28
PITQ3 3:341085Touchdown10–35
INDQ4 14:1135Turnover10–35
PITQ4 12:531054Field goal10–38
INDQ4 6:2939Opp touchdown10–45
INDQ4 4:011130Turnover on downs10–45
PITQ4 0:4200End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck16/2616912
Charlie Whitehurst4/85100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13453.50
Dan Herron284.00
Matt Hasselbeck210.50
Zurlon Tipton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore35491
Andre Johnson23440
T.Y. Hilton35360
Donte Moncrief11330
Coby Fleener48200
Dan Herron33160
Griff Whalen2690
Zurlon Tipton1270
Dwayne Allen1160

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3936440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams261345.20
Ben Roethlisberger11313.00
Fitzgerald Toussaint4123.00
Landry Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown8111182
Martavis Bryant481141
Markus Wheaton36501
DeAngelo Williams56310
Jesse James35300
Darrius Heyward-Bey12210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48