Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.051
- 40.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.254
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.10CPOE-3.08
- 40.5%Third-down rate33.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.59
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/35 | 252 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2/8 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 7 | 132 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 16/30 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 105 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.01