2015 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

16·51

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.051
  • 40.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.254
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.10CPOE-3.08
  • 40.5%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.59
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00852Field goal0–3
INDQ1 11:17678Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 7:473-9Punt3–3
INDQ1 6:4549Punt3–3
JAXQ1 5:143-1Punt3–3
INDQ1 3:09965Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 13:4734Punt6–3
INDQ2 12:0264Punt6–3
JAXQ2 9:25632Punt6–3
INDQ2 6:4741Punt6–3
JAXQ2 5:2133Punt6–3
INDQ2 4:39444Punt6–3
JAXQ2 2:1225Opp touchdown13–3
JAXQ2 1:56443Turnover13–9
INDQ2 1:111-17Opp touchdown13–9
INDQ2 1:0139End of half13–9
INDQ3 15:003-3Punt13–15
JAXQ3 13:45180Touchdown13–16
INDQ3 13:3333Opp touchdown13–23
INDQ3 11:491075Field goal16–23
JAXQ3 7:38946Touchdown16–30
INDQ3 4:5136Punt16–30
JAXQ3 3:511169Touchdown16–37
INDQ4 12:53822Turnover on downs16–37
JAXQ4 11:11855Touchdown16–44
INDQ4 5:59511Turnover16–44
JAXQ4 4:0441Touchdown16–51
INDQ4 1:57315End of half16–51

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/3525200
Charlie Whitehurst2/8801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16603.80
Dan Herron4164.00
Matt Hasselbeck11010.00
Zurlon Tipton177.00
Charlie Whitehurst122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton471320
Donte Moncrief310520
Zurlon Tipton45500
Andre Johnson35190
Coby Fleener1460
Dan Herron2250
Phillip Dorsett0200
Frank Gore15-10
Dwayne Allen23-30

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles16/3025030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson14755.41
T.J. Yeldon11625.60
Blake Bortles4174.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns341051
Julius Thomas57541
Clay Harbor22210
Marqise Lee14210
Rashad Greene14180
Marcedes Lewis12140
Denard Robinson12120
Allen Robinson1441
T.J. Yeldon1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.01