Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
43
Model margin
+5.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 35/51 | 308 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 14 | 95 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.