2015 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

15·12

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

43

Model margin

+5.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–DEN
DENQ1 15:001052Field goal0–3
LVQ1 9:426-3Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:31846Field goal0–6
LVQ1 2:0534Punt0–6
DENQ1 1:0136Punt0–6
LVQ2 14:503-15Punt0–6
DENQ2 13:061559Field goal0–9
LVQ2 4:2933Punt0–9
DENQ2 3:361161Field goal0–12
LVQ2 0:0400End of half0–12
LVQ3 15:00985Touchdown7–12
DENQ3 9:473-5Punt7–12
LVQ3 8:0630Punt7–12
DENQ3 7:41314Turnover7–12
LVQ3 6:493-3Punt7–12
DENQ3 4:353-1Punt7–12
LVQ3 3:3734Punt7–12
DENQ3 2:373-2Safety9–12
LVQ3 1:50513Punt9–12
LVQ4 14:42316Touchdown15–12
DENQ4 14:26749Missed field goal15–12
LVQ4 10:2237Punt15–12
DENQ4 8:48413Punt15–12
LVQ4 6:48422Missed field goal15–12
DENQ4 5:0745Turnover on downs15–12
LVQ4 3:454-3Punt15–12
DENQ4 2:35613Turnover on downs15–12
LVQ4 1:2500End of half15–12

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler35/5130800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman12201.70
Brock Osweiler3103.30
Juwan Thompson581.60
Cody Latimer1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas1014950
Vernon Davis79740
Owen Daniels34430
Ronnie Hillman79410
Juwan Thompson46210
Emmanuel Sanders26170
Bennie Fowler11120
Jordan Norwood1150
Virgil Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.17

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.