2015 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brandon Weeden

34·6

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

-7.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.103
  • 40.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.200
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.17CPOE+0.30
  • 39.6%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.32
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:00512Opp touchdown7–0
TENQ1 13:01519Punt7–0
HOUQ1 9:28830Punt7–0
HOUQ1 5:2437Field goal10–0
TENQ1 3:19520Punt10–0
HOUQ1 0:26617Turnover10–0
TENQ2 12:3344Punt10–0
HOUQ2 11:14827Punt10–0
TENQ2 7:0534Punt10–0
HOUQ2 5:30775Touchdown17–0
TENQ2 2:32725Punt17–0
HOUQ2 1:3644Punt17–0
TENQ2 1:0630Punt17–0
HOUQ2 0:4615End of half17–0
HOUQ3 15:00880Touchdown24–0
TENQ3 11:33522Turnover24–0
HOUQ3 9:01634Touchdown31–0
TENQ3 6:123-1Punt31–0
HOUQ3 5:38930Field goal34–0
TENQ3 0:54972Turnover34–0
HOUQ4 12:0739Punt34–0
TENQ4 9:4937Punt34–0
HOUQ4 8:3337Punt34–0
TENQ4 6:5933Punt34–0
HOUQ4 6:0438Punt34–0
TENQ4 3:391070Touchdown34–6
HOUQ4 1:3100End of half34–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden15/2420020
B.J. Daniels1/2700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue15453.00
Chris Polk11383.50
Jonathan Grimes6254.20
Brandon Weeden2115.51
B.J. Daniels661.00
Akeem Hunt231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7111171
Nate Washington35421
Jaelen Strong25180
Ryan Griffin11130
C.J. Fiedorowicz1160
Akeem Hunt1260
Alfred Blue1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger27/5123411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Cobb7182.60
Bishop Sankey2115.50
Antonio Andrews210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas612790
Delanie Walker915590
Bishop Sankey34430
Anthony Fasano27210
Kendall Wright33180
Craig Stevens1180
Tre McBride2381
Antonio Andrews0200
Dorial Green-Beckham0300
David Cobb11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.1%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-7.34