Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
-7.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.103
- 40.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.200
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.17CPOE+0.30
- 39.6%Third-down rate32.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.50Points / drive1.32
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 15/24 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
| B.J. Daniels | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| B.J. Daniels | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Jaelen Strong | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 27/51 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Cobb | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 6 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 9 | 15 | 59 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
30.1%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.34