Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate41.9%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.32CPOE-1.27
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 2.25Points / drive1.90
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/31 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 7 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 26/41 | 296 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 10 | 115 | 2 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 4 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.83