2015 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·26

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.0%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.32CPOE-1.27
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.90
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:09527Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:171279Field goal0–3
NEQ1 3:193-3Punt0–3
NYJQ1 0:51516Punt0–3
NEQ2 14:451169Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 8:461380Touchdown3–10
NEQ2 1:57320End of half3–10
NEQ3 15:00440Turnover3–10
NYJQ3 13:22771Touchdown3–17
NEQ3 9:13754Field goal6–17
NYJQ3 4:543-6Opp touchdown13–17
NYJQ3 3:21854Field goal13–20
NEQ4 13:283-2Punt13–20
NYJQ4 11:5435Punt13–20
NEQ4 10:25814Punt13–20
NYJQ4 7:3537Punt13–20
NEQ4 6:261166Touchdown20–20
NYJQ4 1:55724Punt20–20
NEQ4 0:2500End of half20–20
NYJOT580Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3123111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Bolden9303.30
Steven Jackson7152.10
Brandon LaFell199.00
Keshawn Martin166.00
James White242.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski46860
Keshawn Martin711680
Brandon Bolden57300
James White55281
Brandon LaFell11190
Michael Williams0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick26/4129630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell7568.00
Chris Ivory11383.50
Stevan Ridley7365.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8101152
Quincy Enunwa24690
Eric Decker36471
Bilal Powell57340
Kenbrell Thompkins49270
Chris Ivory4440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.83