2015 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Ryan Mallett

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 64°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -11

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.081
  • 45.8%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.170
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +4.85CPOE-0.66
  • 39.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.48
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:00755Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 11:001585Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 3:53964Field goal3–7
BALQ2 14:481061Field goal3–10
PITQ2 10:0154Punt3–10
BALQ2 7:02312Punt3–10
PITQ2 5:36320Turnover3–10
BALQ2 4:38734Field goal3–13
PITQ2 1:1739Punt3–13
BALQ2 0:30621End of half3–13
BALQ3 15:00310Punt3–13
PITQ3 14:19826Touchdown10–13
BALQ3 11:1857Punt10–13
PITQ3 9:16418Punt10–13
BALQ3 7:111245Punt10–13
PITQ3 0:28529Turnover10–13
BALQ4 12:55679Touchdown10–20
PITQ4 10:351073Touchdown17–20
BALQ4 6:33532Punt17–20
PITQ4 2:55617Turnover on downs17–20
BALQ4 1:4930Punt17–20
PITQ4 0:041-7Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3422002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams171005.92
Fitzgerald Toussaint263.00
Martavis Bryant144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown711610
DeAngelo Williams66530
Heath Miller56490
Markus Wheaton35410
Darrius Heyward-Bey11100
Martavis Bryant1360
Jesse James1130
Will Johnson0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett28/4127410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen17774.51
Terrance West14443.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken88660
Chris Givens24450
Jeremy Butler36380
Javorius Allen55350
Chris Matthews35191
Maxx Williams25160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -112.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.44