Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.081
- 45.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.170
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- +4.85CPOE-0.66
- 39.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 2.08Points / drive1.48
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/34 | 220 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 28/41 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 8 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.44