Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.076
- 42.4%Success rate45.3%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.66CPOE+4.53
- 37.0%Third-down rate39.6%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 1.48Points / drive2.11
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 30/56 | 292 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 17/27 | 160 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 16 | 96 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.07
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.47