2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Ryan Mallett

16·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB A.J. McCarron

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.4%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -0.66CPOE+4.53
  • 37.0%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.11
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:21618Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:51832Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:40937Punt0–0
CINQ1 1:4936Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:10638Field goal3–0
CINQ2 12:56837Punt3–0
BALQ2 9:19933Field goal6–0
CINQ2 4:55958Touchdown6–7
BALQ2 1:49755Field goal9–7
BALQ3 15:00313Turnover9–7
CINQ3 13:56533Touchdown9–14
BALQ3 11:22721Turnover on downs9–14
CINQ3 9:07662Touchdown9–21
BALQ3 6:55926Punt9–21
CINQ3 3:0435Punt9–21
BALQ3 0:32727Turnover on downs9–21
CINQ4 11:5739Punt9–21
BALQ4 9:3740Punt9–21
CINQ4 8:33726Field goal9–24
BALQ4 4:06973Touchdown16–24
CINQ4 1:4733Punt16–24
BALQ4 0:4120Turnover16–24
CINQ4 0:2400End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett30/5629212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen15382.50
Terrance West5173.40
Ryan Mallett144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken513760
Jeremy Butler68570
Maxx Williams610530
Chris Matthews45510
Javorius Allen610320
Terrance West1250
Chris Givens0400

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron17/2716020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill16966.01
Giovani Bernard6366.00
Mohamed Sanu2115.50
AJ McCarron320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Eifert44511
Marvin Jones55380
A.J. Green45341
Jeremy Hill23190
Giovani Bernard13120
Mohamed Sanu1260
Rex Burkhead0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.07
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.47