2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.020
  • 44.9%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.09CPOE+1.51
  • 38.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.74
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:00977Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:141477Turnover7–0
DETQ1 2:223-6Punt7–0
CHIQ1 0:37418Punt7–0
DETQ2 12:561044Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 6:563-2Punt7–0
DETQ2 5:241162Turnover on downs7–0
CHIQ2 0:39321Turnover7–0
DETQ2 0:112-2Field goal10–0
CHIQ3 15:00952Field goal10–3
DETQ3 9:0330Punt10–3
CHIQ3 6:50341Touchdown10–10
DETQ3 5:28872Touchdown17–10
CHIQ3 1:07683Touchdown17–17
DETQ4 13:20880Touchdown24–17
CHIQ4 8:46632Field goal24–20
DETQ4 5:39515Punt24–20
CHIQ4 3:35420Turnover24–20
DETQ4 1:51311End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/3929830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah10444.40
Matthew Stafford6101.70
Joique Bell393.00
Theo Riddick242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10151371
Joique Bell22490
Golden Tate46340
Theo Riddick45290
Eric Ebron57251
Timothy Wright1191
Ameer Abdullah1170
T.J. Jones0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/2324523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17764.50
Jeremy Langford5142.80
Jay Cutler11111.00
Ka'Deem Carey11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marc Mariani68800
Josh Bellamy34491
Deonte Thompson12450
Matt Forte33341
Cameron Meredith24190
Rob Housler22180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.83