Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.020
- 44.9%Success rate42.8%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.09CPOE+1.51
- 38.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.90Points / drive1.74
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/39 | 298 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 15 | 137 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/23 | 245 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Mariani | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83