2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

6·30

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.8%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.172
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.08CPOE-4.17
  • 33.9%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.50
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:343-6Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:10722Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 8:54744Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 5:243-3Punt0–3
HOUQ1 3:471074Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 14:14755Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 10:1336Punt3–10
JAXQ2 8:4120Turnover3–10
HOUQ2 7:54642Touchdown3–17
JAXQ2 5:37524Punt3–17
HOUQ2 3:17518Punt3–17
JAXQ2 1:3030Turnover3–17
HOUQ2 1:12747Field goal3–20
JAXQ2 0:0300End of half3–20
HOUQ3 15:00412Punt3–20
JAXQ3 12:11415Punt3–20
HOUQ3 9:531155Turnover on downs3–20
JAXQ3 3:4933Punt3–20
HOUQ3 2:4510Turnover3–20
JAXQ3 2:343-3Field goal6–20
HOUQ3 0:43963Missed field goal6–20
JAXQ4 11:14450Turnover6–20
HOUQ4 9:161047Field goal6–23
JAXQ4 3:2410Opp touchdown6–30
JAXQ4 3:091257End of half6–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles17/3223902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray9232.60
Denard Robinson591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson591080
Marcedes Lewis11450
Marqise Lee36300
Clay Harbor11180
Allen Hurns35170
Julius Thomas26120
Rashad Greene1250
Jonas Gray1140
Denard Robinson0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer25/4024911
Jonathan Grimes0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue211024.90
Akeem Hunt3289.30
Jonathan Grimes4266.51
Chris Polk341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins712890
Jaelen Strong67560
Jonathan Grimes45281
Ryan Griffin33270
Akeem Hunt13270
C.J. Fiedorowicz23140
Nate Washington1360
Alfred Blue1120
Chris Polk0100
Keith Mumphery0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.91