Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.055
- 41.8%Success rate40.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.172
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.08CPOE-4.17
- 33.9%Third-down rate39.6%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.50
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 17/32 | 239 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 25/40 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Chris Polk | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.91