Closing spread
GB -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.002
- 40.7%Success rate42.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.87CPOE-0.77
- 39.2%Third-down rate33.6%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.94Points / drive1.72
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 10/19 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 67 | 33.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/44 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| James Starks | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 7 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62