2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

20·13

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

44

Model margin

+1.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.002
  • 40.7%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.87CPOE-0.77
  • 39.2%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.72
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:00959Field goal3–0
GBQ1 10:451565Field goal3–3
MINQ1 2:0238Punt3–3
GBQ1 0:2257Punt3–3
MINQ2 12:48624Punt3–3
GBQ2 8:4135Punt3–3
MINQ2 6:32734Field goal6–3
GBQ2 2:55728Turnover on downs6–3
MINQ2 0:46518Punt6–3
GBQ2 0:0800End of half6–3
GBQ3 15:0044Punt6–3
MINQ3 13:27658Touchdown13–3
GBQ3 10:3231Punt13–3
MINQ3 8:42411Turnover13–3
GBQ3 6:2848Opp touchdown20–3
GBQ3 4:281490Touchdown20–10
MINQ4 13:27623Punt20–10
GBQ4 10:00759Field goal20–13
MINQ4 5:3500Turnover20–13
GBQ4 5:21864Turnover20–13
MINQ4 2:0937Punt20–13
GBQ4 0:58820Turnover on downs20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater10/199901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19673.51
Adam Thielen26733.50
Jerick McKinnon4153.80
Teddy Bridgewater221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon34330
Mike Wallace13220
Jarius Wright23210
Adam Thielen11160
Stefon Diggs1280
Adrian Peterson1110
Kyle Rudolph0100
MyCole Pruitt0100
Rhett Ellison11-20

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4429111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy13342.60
James Starks8243.00
Aaron Rodgers3124.00
Randall Cobb133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones4131020
Richard Rodgers78591
Davante Adams46540
Randall Cobb68370
James Starks33180
Eddie Lacy2270
Andrew Quarless0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62