Closing spread
NE -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.032
- 44.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.32CPOE+1.20
- 41.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.25Points / drive1.42
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 12/21 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 2 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/38 | 350 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27