2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

10·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.032
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.32CPOE+1.20
  • 41.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.42
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
NEQ1 14:0138Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:50959Field goal0–3
NEQ1 8:07619Punt0–3
MIAQ1 4:301248Missed field goal0–3
NEQ2 14:071153Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 8:0638Punt3–3
NEQ2 5:5583Missed field goal3–3
MIAQ2 1:56864Touchdown3–10
NEQ2 0:3600End of half3–10
NEQ3 15:00576Touchdown10–10
MIAQ3 12:3231Punt10–10
NEQ3 11:1030Punt10–10
MIAQ3 10:41632Punt10–10
NEQ3 7:4478Punt10–10
MIAQ3 5:29854Turnover on downs10–10
NEQ3 2:03310Punt10–10
MIAQ3 0:45634Punt10–10
NEQ4 12:57627Punt10–10
MIAQ4 9:50682Touchdown10–17
NEQ4 6:583-13Punt10–17
MIAQ4 4:41844Field goal10–20
NEQ4 1:5646Turnover on downs10–20
MIAQ4 1:1900End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady12/2113400
Jimmy Garoppolo1/4600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson14352.51
Brandon Bolden9313.40
James White351.70
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White23630
Steven Jackson11200
Rob Gronkowski27180
Danny Amendola24170
Brandon LaFell2470
Chris Harper1160
Brandon Bolden2250
Keshawn Martin1240
Scott Chandler0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/3835020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller19603.20
Ryan Tannehill3175.70
Damien Williams3113.70
Jarvis Landry263.00
Jay Ajayi720.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker561061
Greg Jennings45740
Jarvis Landry611720
Dion Sims33400
Damien Williams33380
Kenny Stills14110
Jordan Cameron2461
Lamar Miller1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.27