2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

35·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

51

Model margin

+3.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.025
  • 42.7%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.86CPOE-1.12
  • 39.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.02
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:00580Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 13:10936Punt7–0
PHIQ1 9:1343Punt7–0
NYGQ1 7:15844Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 4:07685Touchdown14–3
NYGQ1 1:36968Field goal14–6
PHIQ2 13:48414Turnover14–6
NYGQ2 12:14335Touchdown14–13
PHIQ2 11:011680Touchdown21–13
NYGQ2 4:381475Touchdown21–20
PHIQ2 0:1300End of half21–20
NYGQ3 15:00641Punt21–20
PHIQ3 11:51644Turnover21–26
NYGQ3 9:20145Touchdown21–27
PHIQ3 9:1133Punt21–27
NYGQ3 7:32844Opp touchdown28–27
NYGQ3 3:34642Punt28–27
PHIQ3 0:311391Touchdown35–27
NYGQ4 9:191150Field goal35–30
PHIQ4 4:30737Punt35–30
NYGQ4 1:43822Turnover on downs35–30
PHIQ4 0:2800End of half35–30

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford30/3832021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray12695.81
Darren Sproles3248.01
Kenjon Barner5183.60
Ryan Mathews4112.80
Sam Bradford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz991520
Jordan Matthews79542
Brent Celek22380
Nelson Agholor23230
Kenjon Barner55210
Darren Sproles33200
Ryan Mathews1270
Trey Burton1150
Riley Cooper0100
DeMarco Murray0100
Josh Huff0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4330220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings271706.31
Andre Williams5265.20
Shane Vereen4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle47791
Shane Vereen68720
Will Tye58671
Odell Beckham Jr.57540
Hakeem Nicks24240
Rashad Jennings2560
Myles White0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.03