Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
51
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.025
- 42.7%Success rate44.0%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.86CPOE-1.12
- 39.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.56Points / drive2.02
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 30/38 | 320 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 9 | 152 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 7 | 9 | 54 | 2 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/43 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 27 | 170 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Myles White | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.03