2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·12

Browns

Cleveland

QB Austin Davis

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PIT -13

Total

47

Model margin

-5.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.074
  • 45.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.179
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.85CPOE-0.75
  • 39.0%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.32
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:00525Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 12:5249Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 11:24875Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:066-3Punt7–0
PITQ1 3:2810Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 3:21513Field goal7–3
PITQ1 1:11855Missed field goal7–3
CLEQ2 12:31713Punt7–3
PITQ2 9:0337Punt7–3
CLEQ2 7:141036Field goal7–6
PITQ2 1:56680Touchdown14–6
CLEQ2 0:58865Field goal14–9
CLEQ3 15:0032Punt14–9
PITQ3 14:0022Turnover14–9
CLEQ3 13:0534Turnover14–9
PITQ3 12:12669Field goal17–9
CLEQ3 9:391772Field goal17–12
PITQ4 14:53531Punt17–12
CLEQ4 11:4737Turnover23–12
PITQ4 10:4918Touchdown25–12
CLEQ4 10:4300Field goal25–12
PITQ4 10:37525Field goal28–12
CLEQ4 7:401027Turnover28–12
PITQ4 4:2734Punt28–12
CLEQ4 2:06718Turnover on downs28–12
PITQ4 1:0500End of half28–12

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3634932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fitzgerald Toussaint12242.00
DeAngelo Williams581.60
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown13171871
Darrius Heyward-Bey25740
Markus Wheaton35571
Heath Miller34181
DeAngelo Williams22130
Martavis Bryant1300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Austin Davis24/4624002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell15533.50
Austin Davis3227.30
Duke Johnson4112.80
Travis Benjamin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge813660
Travis Benjamin511530
Darius Jennings610450
Terrelle Pryor16420
Duke Johnson46340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -133.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.79