Closing spread
PIT -13
Total
47
Model margin
-5.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.074
- 45.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.85CPOE-0.75
- 39.0%Third-down rate41.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 2.08Points / drive1.32
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/36 | 349 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 13 | 17 | 187 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Davis | 24/46 | 240 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Austin Davis | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 8 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 5 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.79