Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/22 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 5/9 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 99 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.40
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+4.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.