2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

20·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -10

Total

42

Model margin

+4.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–DEN
DENQ1 15:00280Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 14:29948Field goal3–7
DENQ1 10:10574Turnover3–7
LACQ1 8:2134Punt3–7
DENQ1 6:52623Turnover3–7
LACQ1 4:46616Punt3–7
DENQ1 1:31651Turnover3–7
LACQ2 14:2034Punt3–7
DENQ2 13:16626Punt3–7
LACQ2 9:2332Punt3–7
DENQ2 7:0210Turnover3–7
LACQ2 6:5034Field goal6–7
DENQ2 5:5230Punt6–7
LACQ2 4:15715Punt6–7
DENQ2 0:58625End of half6–7
LACQ3 15:00620Punt6–7
DENQ3 11:53216Turnover6–7
LACQ3 11:23627Touchdown13–7
DENQ3 8:18875Touchdown13–14
LACQ3 5:24942Turnover on downs13–14
DENQ3 0:29637Field goal13–17
LACQ4 13:09180Touchdown20–17
DENQ4 12:58658Field goal20–20
LACQ4 9:45419Punt20–20
DENQ4 7:4732Punt20–20
LACQ4 6:1933Turnover20–26
DENQ4 4:50123Touchdown20–27
LACQ4 4:441033Turnover on downs20–27
DENQ4 1:40315End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler14/2223212
Peyton Manning5/96900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman151177.81
C.J. Anderson15956.31
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas591171
Emmanuel Sanders58990
Jordan Norwood34480
Owen Daniels11150
Virgil Green11140
Ronnie Hillman23100
Bennie Fowler1130
Cody Latimer0100
C.J. Anderson13-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.40
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+4.85

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.