Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.083
- 41.1%Success rate40.1%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.206
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.30CPOE-4.10
- 32.1%Third-down rate40.5%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.47
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tanney | 10/14 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 5/13 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Cobb | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 9 | 14 | 94 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/28 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Lindley | 6/10 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trey Williams | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 7 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31