2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

24·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Josh Freeman

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.083
  • 41.1%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.206
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.30CPOE-4.10
  • 32.1%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.47
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:001249Field goal0–3
TENQ1 8:57320Punt0–3
INDQ1 7:2237Punt0–3
TENQ1 5:183-5Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:4331Turnover6–3
TENQ1 2:2515Touchdown7–3
INDQ1 2:21469Touchdown7–10
TENQ1 0:121165Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 10:25741Field goal14–13
TENQ2 6:2939Punt14–13
INDQ2 4:59631Punt14–13
TENQ2 2:4237Punt14–13
INDQ2 1:39858Touchdown14–20
TENQ2 0:1300End of half14–20
TENQ3 15:0035Opp touchdown14–27
TENQ3 14:191049Field goal17–27
INDQ3 7:30831Punt17–27
TENQ3 3:55425Punt17–27
INDQ3 1:1132Punt17–27
TENQ4 14:12644Touchdown24–27
INDQ4 11:0734Punt24–27
TENQ4 10:043-7Punt24–27
INDQ4 8:271238Field goal24–30
TENQ4 2:25715Turnover on downs24–30
INDQ4 1:2500End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Tanney10/149910
Zach Mettenberger5/133801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Cobb19733.81
Delanie Walker13636.00
Bishop Sankey4164.00
Tre McBride188.00
Zach Mettenberger242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker914940
Dorial Green-Beckham25211
Harry Douglas22190
Antonio Andrews2230
Tre McBride0100
Jalston Fowler0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/2814911
Ryan Lindley6/105810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19764.00
Josh Freeman8243.00
Trey Williams2126.00
Phillip Dorsett11111.00
Dan Herron242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener77881
Andre Johnson46461
T.Y. Hilton47440
Phillip Dorsett49280
Jack Doyle1130
Frank Gore0400
Dan Herron0100
Donte Moncrief12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31