Closing spread
KC -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.055
- 44.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.03CPOE-4.17
- 36.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.92Points / drive1.50
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/22 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 128 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 15/34 | 136 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28