2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

14·17

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -1.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.9%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.253
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.71CPOE+3.80
  • 47.4%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.65
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:1113Turnover0–0
GBQ1 12:0335Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:0434Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:47711Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 5:39525Punt7–0
GBQ1 2:3152Punt7–0
MINQ2 15:001064Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 10:1436Punt7–7
MINQ2 8:343-3Punt7–7
GBQ2 6:58629Punt7–7
MINQ2 4:41764Field goal7–10
GBQ2 0:2729End of half7–10
GBQ3 15:00419Punt7–10
MINQ3 13:02411Punt7–10
GBQ3 10:341245Turnover on downs7–10
MINQ3 4:57687Touchdown7–17
GBQ3 2:111157Touchdown14–17
MINQ4 12:41313Punt14–17
GBQ4 10:32841Turnover14–17
MINQ4 6:5342Punt14–17
GBQ4 4:38936Turnover14–17
MINQ4 1:5063Turnover on downs14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3621311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy12504.20
Aaron Rodgers3299.71
James Starks730.40
Randall Cobb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson511731
Randall Cobb57420
Jared Cook46310
Davante Adams37260
Richard Rodgers22250
James Starks11160
Eddie Lacy0100
Trevor Davis0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford22/3128620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson12191.60
Matt Asiata6142.30
Jerick McKinnon221.00
Cordarrelle Patterson1-2-2.00
Sam Bradford1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs9111821
Adam Thielen45410
Kyle Rudolph38311
Charles D. Johnson22150
Matt Asiata11110
Adrian Peterson2370
Jerick McKinnon11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92