Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.042
- 45.9%Success rate42.5%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.253
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.71CPOE+3.80
- 47.4%Third-down rate38.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.39Points / drive1.65
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/36 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| James Starks | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 22/31 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 19 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 182 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92