Closing spread
BUF -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.056
- 40.5%Success rate44.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.070EPA / rush+0.028
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- -4.70CPOE+0.94
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.7%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.40Points / drive2.08
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/34 | 374 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 30 | 100 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 8 | 126 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 101 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 6 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Jalin Marshall | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 18/30 | 297 | 3 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 112 | 1 |
| Greg Salas | 4 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39